Investor interest in MTN Nigeria shares surged in April 2025, fuelled by growing optimism that the country’s largest telecom operator will return to profitability in the first quarter of the year.
The renewed confidence follows recent 50% price hikes, which analysts believe will significantly bolster the company’s profit margins and start reflecting in its earnings this year.
On April 15, MTN Nigeria’s trading volume exceeded 11 million units, marking the highest single-day trading volume for the telecom giant on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
MTN is expected to release its Q1 2025 financial results on April 29, just a day before its annual general meeting. A profitable first quarter would mark MTN’s first such achievement since the steep devaluation of the naira in 2023.
MTN Nigeria, with over 50% market share, remains central to the nation’s digital economy, connecting tens of millions of Nigerians to voice, data, and digital services. Its stock performance not only reflects investor sentiment but also influences the company’s ability to raise capital, expand broadband access, and invest in critical network infrastructure.
In a bid to diversify revenue streams and strengthen its position in the home broadband market, MTN recently rebranded its fibre-to-the-home service from MTN Fibre Broadband to FibreX—a move investors view as a signal of growth potential.
Adding to the momentum, MTN Nigeria announced on April 12 plans for a second public share offering, aiming to reduce MTN Group’s ownership stake from approximately 76% to 65% to foster broader local ownership. However, the offer is contingent on MTN Nigeria returning to profitability and resuming dividend payments.
“Investors believe MTN Nigeria shares are extremely cheap despite the recovery of earnings in Q4,” said Tajudeen Ibrahim, Director of Research and Strategy at Chapel Hill Denham, a leading financial advisory firm.
Currently valued at approximately $3.92 billion, MTN Nigeria ranks as the fourth most capitalised stock on the NGX. Its share price has risen to $0.19, reflecting growing investor confidence in the company’s turnaround strategy.
Meanwhile, Airtel Africa—Nigeria’s second-largest telecom operator and the most capitalised company on the NGX—has seen far less trading activity, despite also raising tariffs by 50%.
Between January 17 and April 17, Airtel Africa recorded a modest 336,734 shares traded across 331 deals, averaging just over 5,300 shares daily. Its highest daily volume was 188,074 shares on April 7.
According to Benedict Egwuchukwu, an investment researcher at Afrinvest, Airtel Africa’s limited trading activity is largely due to its status as an “illiquid stock”, compounded by its ongoing $100 million share buyback program. As shares are repurchased and removed from the market, liquidity continues to decline, making it harder for investors to buy or sell without significantly impacting the share price.
In contrast, MTN Nigeria’s liquidity, backed by a large base of active traders, makes it easier for investors to enter and exit positions without causing sharp price swings.
Despite impressive trading figures, MTN Nigeria still ranked only 44th by trading volume on the NGX during April. For context, the exchange’s most traded stock, Fidelity Bank, saw more than 388 million shares change hands in a single day.
Nonetheless, the increased trading activity signals that investors believe MTN is on the path to recovery.
Between 2023 and 2024, MTN Nigeria reported steep losses due primarily to currency volatility. In 2024 alone, the company posted a loss after tax of approximately $308 million—a 192% increase from 2023 losses—driven by $711 million in foreign exchange losses. However, revenue grew by 36% year-on-year, reaching around $2.58 billion, thanks to strong demand for data and digital services.
The company closed out 2024 on a stronger note, reporting an $88 million profit after tax in the fourth quarter, renewing investor confidence that the worst of its foreign exchange challenges may now be behind it.
Despite the brighter outlook, significant challenges persist. Inflation continues to rise, eroding consumer spending power, while poverty levels are deepening.
According to the World Bank’s latest report, nearly 47% of Nigerians now live below the national poverty line.
For MTN Nigeria, a shrinking customer base with limited disposable income poses a risk to sustained telecom service demand, even as the company moves to expand digital access.
As MTN Nigeria prepares to release its Q1 2025 earnings, the stakes are high. A return to profitability could not only trigger its long-anticipated public share offering but also mark a turning point for Nigeria’s broader digital economy.
For now, investors are betting that MTN Nigeria’s recovery is real—and that its future is brighter than its turbulent past.
