The recent NIN (National Identification Number) verification exercise conducted by Nigerian telecommunications companies has resulted in a significant drop in the number of active mobile subscriptions.
According to data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the exercise concluded on September 14, leading MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9Mobile to disconnect a collective 64.3 million SIM cards that were unverified.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of how each operator was impacted:
Globacom experienced the largest reduction in its subscriber base. In March 2024, it had 62.1 million active subscriptions, but following the NIN verification exercise, this dropped to 19.1 million, representing a loss of 43 million subscribers.
This steep decline indicates that a significant portion of Globacom’s customers either lacked verified NINs or failed to complete the NIN-SIM linkage process by the deadline.
9mobile, a smaller player in the Nigerian telecom market, also saw a substantial reduction in active lines. As of March 2024, it had 11.6 million subscribers, but after the verification, this figure plummeted to just 3.6 million. The operator lost about 8 million subscriptions, underscoring the impact of unverified NINs within its customer base. 9mobile has been experiencing subscriber losses in recent years, and this latest drop could further affect its market position.
Despite losing 3.7 million subscribers, MTN maintained its position as the largest telecom operator in Nigeria. It had 81.7 million active subscriptions in March, which fell to 78 million by the end of September.
MTN’s management had previously anticipated minimal financial impact from the verification process, as many of the disconnected customers were classified as “low-value subscribers.”
Airtel, the second-largest telecom provider in Nigeria, also saw a significant drop in its active subscriptions. From 63.3 million in March, its subscriber base fell to 53.7 million by September, losing about 9.6 million subscribers.
Airtel’s parent company, Airtel Africa, had warned earlier that the NIN verification could impact revenues. Airtel Africa reported that as of June 30, 2024, approximately 4.9 million of its Nigerian customers were unverified, potentially leading to a loss of around $4 million in monthly revenue.
The combined effect of this massive pruning exercise brought the total number of active subscriptions across all four telecom operators down to 154.6 million by September, compared to 219 million in March.
This decline has essentially “sanitised” the subscriber database, ensuring that only individuals with verified NINs are active on the network.
The Nigerian government introduced the policy of linking SIM cards to NINs in December 2020 as a national security measure aimed at curbing crime and fraud.
The NCC mandated the telecom operators to bar unregistered and unlinked SIMs, with multiple deadlines set and extended over the years due to challenges faced by subscribers and telecom companies in meeting the requirements.
However, the NCC finally set a strict deadline of September 14, 2024, for the conclusion of both the linking and verification of all NINs connected with SIMs.
In the months leading up to the deadline, telecom operators temporarily barred millions of lines, resulting in disruptions to mobile service and even instances of unrest, with customers besieging telco stores in attempts to resolve their issues.
At one point in July, many subscribers were unable to make or receive calls, prompting the NCC to temporarily reverse the ban to give customers additional time for the verification process.
Following the conclusion of the exercise, a telecom expert, Mr. Adewale Adeoye, commended the thoroughness of this verification, calling it a “sanitisation” of the telecom database.
He emphasised that having a properly identified telecom subscriber base could aid in reducing misuse of telecommunication services for criminal activities and assist the security agencies in addressing Nigeria’s security challenges.
Dr. Aminu Maida, Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, confirmed the success of the NIN-SIM linkage, stating that all active mobile lines are now connected to verified NINs.
He highlighted that this linkage enables law enforcement to directly trace any number used in criminal or fraudulent activities to the individual associated with the NIN.
At a recent corporate governance conference, Maida said, “Today, there is no phone number that we cannot associate with a verified NIN. Not just a number, but a number that has been verified.”
While MTN and Airtel experienced fewer losses than Globacom and 9mobile, both operators had previously warned that the NIN verification would affect revenue in the short term.
Airtel Africa had projected that it could lose up to $4 million in monthly revenue if the unverified customers did not comply with the NIN mandate.
The overall subscriber loss among the telecom operators, however, could contribute to more accurate revenue calculations and operational efficiency and potentially increase Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) as networks prioritise verified and higher-value subscribers.
The mandatory NIN-SIM linkage exercise marks a significant milestone in Nigeria’s telecom industry, aiming to enhance both operational integrity and national security.
While this reduction in subscribers could impact short-term revenues, the exercise is expected to contribute to a more secure and manageable telecom environment in Nigeria.
The telecom sector and regulatory bodies will likely be monitoring the long-term effects of this exercise on both customer satisfaction and security outcomes, as well as its financial impact on telecom operators, in the upcoming quarterly results.
