Global 6G connections are forecast to reach 2.4 billion by 2035, up from about 50 million at the end of 2030, as the technology moves from initial launches to global-scale deployment.
The forecast by GSMA Intelligence projects 6G to account for 23% of all global mobile connections by 2035, while 5G will remain the dominant technology with around 60% of connections.
GSMA Intelligence expects 6G adoption to build steadily after its initial launches, reaching 275 million connections by the end of 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032.
The technology is projected to cross the one billion-connections milestone during 2033, ending that year at 1.3 billion connections. This is expected to rise to 1.9 billion in 2034 before reaching 2.4 billion in 2035.
Two phases of 6G growth
According to GSMA Intelligence, the first 6G cycle will develop across two distinct phases.
Between 2030 and 2032, the rollout is expected to focus on initial launches and ecosystem development. From 2033 onwards, 6G is projected to begin operating at a global scale.
The research arm of the GSMA forecasts that 6G will represent 0.5% of all global mobile connections by the end of 2030.
Despite the rapid growth of 6G, GSMA Intelligence does not expect the technology to displace 5G in the early stages of its adoption.
Instead, 6G is expected to develop alongside 5G, with 4G also continuing to play an important role in several markets.
China to account for more than half
China is expected to have a significant influence on global 6G connection numbers because of the scale of its mobile market.
GSMA Intelligence forecasts that China will account for more than half of global 6G connections by 2035.
However, China is not expected to be the only market to achieve high levels of 6G adoption. Several of the world’s leading mobile markets are forecast to have around half of their connections on 6G by the middle of the decade.
Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence, said the 2035 projection should be viewed as a milestone rather than the endpoint for 6G.
“By 2035, 6G will have moved firmly into the global mobile technology mix, but it will coexist with a much larger 5G base and with 4G still playing an important role in many markets,” he said.
“This coexistence is likely to be one of the defining characteristics of the early 6G era.”
