Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for Tesla’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries after stronger-than-expected sales trends in Europe and China, although it has maintained a cautious stance on the electric vehicle manufacturer’s energy storage business.
The investment bank now expects Tesla to deliver approximately 413,000 vehicles during the second quarter, up from its previous estimate of around 373,000. The revised forecast also exceeds the broader market consensus of roughly 401,000 deliveries.
The upgrade follows stronger vehicle registration and sales data across key markets in April and May. Europe accounted for the largest improvement, with registrations comfortably ahead of year-earlier levels. April also marked another month of recovery following a challenging period in 2025.
China also showed encouraging signs of improvement. Domestic sales rebounded in May compared with both the previous year and the preceding month, ending two consecutive months of annual declines and suggesting that demand may be beginning to stabilise.
In the United States, sales remained weaker than a year earlier through May. However, Morgan Stanley said regional data still indicated deliveries would exceed its previous expectations.
Despite the stronger vehicle outlook, the brokerage left its price target for Tesla unchanged at 415 dollars, reflecting continued caution over the company’s energy storage business.
Morgan Stanley forecasts second-quarter energy storage deployments of 11.8 gigawatt-hours (GWh), below the market expectation of around 14.3 GWh. The bank attributed its more conservative outlook to project timing following delays experienced during the first quarter.
Nevertheless, it expects energy storage deployments to accelerate during the second half of the year, with full-year installations reaching approximately 55 GWh, broadly in line with market expectations.
The improved delivery outlook also prompted the brokerage to raise its earnings forecasts. Morgan Stanley increased its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA estimate by 11 per cent and modestly lifted its full-year revenue and profit projections, citing stronger vehicle volumes and slightly improved automotive margins.
Tesla shares rose 1.2 per cent to close at 379.71 dollars on Friday after reaching an intraday high of 387.80 dollars. The stock added a further 0.2 per cent in after-hours trading to 380.41 dollars.
