Morgan Stanley has identified four major catalysts that could drive SpaceX’s valuation, including stronger artificial intelligence usage, the next Starship test flight, higher AI computing prices and the potential development of a distributed inference cloud.
The investment bank rates SpaceX Overweight and has set a $300 price target, while warning that upcoming developments could trigger significant volatility in the company’s valuation.
Morgan Stanley said actual usage of SpaceX’s AI models would be more important than benchmark performance. The bank noted that Elon Musk had previously said token volumes for Grok tripled following the release of Grok 4.5.
It expects further evidence of usage through Cursor following SpaceX’s acquisition of the coding platform, as well as through the company’s earnings.
The second major catalyst is Starship Flight 14, which Morgan Stanley expects to take place in early September. Before the launch, SpaceX must complete a full-vehicle static fire and secure Federal Aviation Administration approval for a planned ship catch.
Morgan Stanley expects the test to become a major volatility event for SpaceX and potentially determine whether Starship can become fully operational by the end of the year.
The bank also sees scope for higher AI computing prices to strengthen SpaceX’s financial outlook. It pointed to CoreWeave’s roughly 25% increase in prices across its products as evidence that SpaceX’s current pricing assumptions could prove too conservative.
A fourth potential catalyst is the development of a distributed inference cloud powered by robots and other connected devices through Starlink.
Morgan Stanley estimates that 2.2 billion robots could be operating globally by 2040, with each requiring about 500 watts of computing capacity. That would represent approximately 1.1 terawatts of aggregate computing capacity, which the bank believes could potentially be connected through SpaceX’s Starlink network.
The combination of Starlink connectivity, AI computing and robotics could therefore create a new distributed computing infrastructure opportunity for SpaceX, adding to the company’s existing satellite and launch businesses.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target reflects its expectation that these catalysts could materially expand SpaceX’s growth prospects, although it cautioned that events such as the Starship Flight 14 test could produce substantial short-term swings in the company’s valuation.
