6G mobile networks could contribute an additional $1.24 trillion to the global economy in 2040, equivalent to 0.7% of global GDP, but insufficient spectrum availability could put as much as $520 billion, or 42% of that economic opportunity, at risk, according to a new report published today by the GSMA, which represents mobile operators worldwide.
The report, Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G provides a new economic analysis of the potential impact of next-generation mobile technology across industries and regions.
It finds that 6G will generate significant economic value beyond what mobile networks would deliver if 5G remained the most advanced technology, driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI), integrated sensing, industrial automation, immersive digital services and ubiquitous connectivity.
However, realising these benefits will depend on governments making sufficient spectrum available in time to support 6G deployment. With crucial international spectrum decisions approaching at the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 (WRC-27), the GSMA is urging policymakers to act now to avoid constraining future economic growth.
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA, said, “6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy. The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realise the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead.”
6G to drive productivity and innovation across the economy
The report identifies manufacturing and financial services as the two largest beneficiaries of 6G, accounting for 20% and 19%, respectively, of its additional economic contribution in 2040. Construction will account for a further 13%, while information and communications technology will contribute 12%.
Unlike previous generations of mobile technology, 6G is expected to be AI-native, enabling networks not only to carry data but also to sense their environment, support intelligent decision-making and integrate terrestrial and satellite connectivity.
The report identifies five key areas through which 6G will generate additional economic value: connectivity for future AI systems; industrial automation and robotics; enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access; integrated sensing and communication; and non-terrestrial networks that extend connectivity into underserved areas. Together, these capabilities will enable businesses to improve productivity, develop new products and services, and expand digital innovation into sectors and locations that today’s networks cannot fully support.
The benefits will be felt globally, with Greater China expected to have $390 billion of additional economic value by 2040, North America forecast to gain $290 billion, followed by Europe at $225 billion. The scale of economic gains will depend on the pace of 6G adoption, national infrastructure and the ability of businesses to integrate new technologies.
Spectrum shortages could put 42% of economic benefits at risk
The report finds that mid-band spectrum will be responsible for 70% of 6G’s economic contribution in 2040, reflecting its importance in delivering the capacity and performance required for advanced digital services. Low-band spectrum will contribute approximately 25%, providing essential coverage across rural areas, inside buildings and in locations where higher frequencies cannot reach effectively.
However, constrained access to these ranges could reduce 6G’s economic contribution by as much as $520 billion in 2040. The GSMA warns that these losses would come on top of any wider economic impact on existing mobile networks, which share the same spectrum resources.
To secure the full economic benefits of 6G, the report calls on governments and regulators to take three priority actions:
·Make at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, with further capacity subsequently released to meet growing 6G demand. This should include upper 6 GHz spectrum, supported by additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands.
·Make the 600 MHz band available for 6G, strengthening rural and indoor coverage and supporting the widespread deployment of connected devices and services, with 500 MHz considered where appropriate.
· Establish clear, timely national spectrum roadmaps, giving mobile operators the certainty needed to plan investment and deploy next-generation networks ahead of demand.
With WRC-27 approaching, the GSMA stresses that internationally coordinated spectrum planning will be critical to enabling the next generation of mobile connectivity and maximising its economic contribution.
Giusti concluded, “Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth. With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen.”
