The Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA) has warned that spectrum shortages could put $520 billion of the projected $1.24 trillion economic contribution of 6G at risk by 2040.
In its Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G report, the industry association estimated that next-generation mobile networks could add 0.7 per cent to global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2040. However, limited spectrum availability could wipe out approximately 42 per cent of the projected economic gains.
The GSMA said the economic benefits of 6G would be driven by five key areas: connectivity for future artificial intelligence (AI) systems, industrial automation and robotics, enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA), integrated sensing and communications (ISAC), and non-terrestrial networks (NTN).
Unlike previous generations of mobile technology, 6G is expected to be AI-native, creating new opportunities for businesses and industries.
Manufacturing and financial services are projected to account for the largest shares of 6G’s additional economic contribution in 2040, representing 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.
Construction is expected to contribute 13 per cent, while the information and communications technology sector will account for a further 12 per cent.
Regionally, Greater China is forecast to record the largest economic gains, at $390 billion, followed by North America with $290 billion and Europe with $225 billion.
However, the GSMA cautioned that the scale of these benefits would depend on the adoption of 6G technology, national infrastructure development and the readiness of businesses to embrace the technology.
Spectrum planning
To support the development and deployment of 6G, the GSMA has urged governments to accelerate spectrum planning, warning that decisions taken now will determine the capacity and performance of future mobile networks.
The association expects mid-band spectrum to underpin approximately 70 per cent of 6G’s economic contribution, while low-band frequencies will account for about 25 per cent, supporting indoor and rural coverage.
It has therefore called for governments to make at least 2GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, including capacity in the upper 6GHz range, alongside access to the 600MHz band.
The GSMA also urged governments to establish clear national spectrum roadmaps to provide mobile network operators with greater investment certainty.
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA, stressed that more than $500 billion of the projected economic value of 6G would depend on spectrum decisions made by governments today.
“More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today,” he said.
“Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth,” he added.
