Mizuho has downplayed growing concerns that Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT will flood the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market with excess supply, arguing that fears of a sharp decline in pricing are overstated.
In a note to clients on Friday, the investment bank said expectations of aggressive production expansion by CXMT over the next two years are not supported by its analysis.
According to Jordan Klein, TMT sector specialist at Mizuho, the firm’s Japan research team updated its outlook on CXMT to address what he described as widespread fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding the company’s potential impact on DRAM pricing following a future initial public offering (IPO).
Mizuho estimates that CXMT’s DRAM bit supply will grow by 13 per cent year-on-year in 2027, significantly below the broader industry’s projected growth of 21 per cent. The firm expects the Chinese manufacturer to account for around 8 per cent of global DRAM market share by then.
The bank also forecasts CXMT’s compound annual growth rate between 2026 and 2028 at 24 per cent, broadly in line with the overall DRAM industry’s expansion. It said this indicates the company is unlikely to pursue market share through aggressive pricing or excessive capacity additions.
Mizuho pointed to several operational challenges that are expected to limit CXMT’s expansion. It noted that Applied Materials and Lam Research suspended servicing of the company’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment in March 2026. In addition, much of CXMT’s production equipment is approaching a decade in service and requires upgrades and replacement as part of its manufacturing refresh cycle.
The firm further warned that CXMT is likely to face yield pressures during its transition to more advanced manufacturing nodes in 2027. It also highlighted the company’s lack of access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment as a significant constraint on production growth.
Klein added that the Chinese government is encouraging CXMT to dedicate a larger share of its manufacturing capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) rather than conventional DRAM, reducing the likelihood of oversupply in the mainstream memory market.
He also noted that CXMT remains well behind leading global competitors in HBM technology and is not supplying products to hyperscale cloud providers outside China, factors that further limit its influence on global DRAM pricing.If you’d like, I can also produce this in a Reuters-style market report or an Investing.com-style news brief.
