Various telecoms industry data, including subscriber base figures from the National Communications Authority (NCA) itself shows that in spite of the regulatory measures to constrain MTN Ghana and allow other players to grow, the opposite is rather the case.
The figures show clearly that those measures have so far either had zero or positive impact on the growth of MTN on all fronts. On the contrary, the smaller telcos, which are supposed to benefit from the regulatory interventions, have rather been consistent on their losing ways.
In June 2020, MTN Ghana was named the significant market power (SMP), because government said MTN controlled more than 75% of the telecoms market in terms of voice, SMS, data, mobile money and even revenue, which is way more than the 40% required by law to name one SMP.
The NCA therefore started implementing at least seven regulatory measures to correct the market imbalance. Those measures were practically designed to constrain MTN Ghana in a number of ways, and allow the smaller players to be able to compete on the market.
Some of the measures included a 30% reduction in the interconnect fees MTN charges from other telcos, bridging on-net and off-net call and SMS rates, national roaming, and a direct order to MTN not to have the lowest prices on the market, for both voice and data packages.
It was in keeping with those directives that MTN Ghana recently announced that it had suspended its most affordable Data Zone Bundles, to the annoyance of its customers, particularly students who depended heavily on those packages for their school work.
5G and eSIM
MTN was even denied spectrum for the rollout of a 5G network in 2022, after it had readied over 1,300 towers across the country for the purpose. It was also denied the opportunity to launch eSIM first, even though it applied for the authorization first. Government allowed AirtelTigo to do it ahead of MTN.
But in spite of all the constraints being placed on MTN, the telco keeps growing on all fronts as if there are no constraints at all, while the intended beneficiaries keep losing on all fronts as if there are no regulatory interventions designed to help them.
Mobile Voice
For starters, in June 2020, when MTN was first declared SMP, it had a total subscriber base of about 23.28 million. At the same time, Vodafone Ghana had 8.59 million subscribers, AirtelTigo had 7.87 million and Glo managed to survive on some 746,874 subscribers.
Fast forward to December 2022, two and half years on, AirtelTigo had lost more than two million subscribers and dropped to 5.59 million; Vodafone had also lost over a million customers down to 7.54 million. Meanwhile, the constrained telco, MTN, had rather gained over three million customers and was up to over 26.6 million.
The irony is that AirtelTigo even had Glo migrating over 800,000 customers to its network in April 2022, and yet it recorded more than two million drop in subscribers over the period.
Latest figuresÂ
Again, the latest industry figures from NCA for the month of January 2023, indicate that MTN recorded a further 200,000+ additional subscribers to reach over 26.8 million, while AirtelTigo also recorded some growth to reach 5.76 million, but Vodafone dropped further down to 7.24 million.
Per the figures, MTN is not just gaining additional subscribers but also gaining market share, while its competitors keep losing both subscribers and market share. MTN’s market share in June 2020 was 63%, but as of January 2023 it had grown to 67.3%. Meanwhile, AirtelTigo’s market share had dipped from 16.7% to 14.5% and that of Vodafone had also dropped marginally from 18.9% to 18.2% over the period. Glo is completely out of the picture.
Mobile Data
The story is not different on the mobile data market either. In June 2020, when MTN was named SMP, it had a little over 17 million data subscribers. But as of January 2023, it has increased data subs marginally to 17.15 million.
Over the same period – June 2020 to January 2023, AirtelTigo lost about 500,000 data customers from 3.1 million to 2.6 million; Vodafone also lost marginally from 3.19 million to 3 million.
Again, in terms of mobile data market share, MTN had 72% in June 2020, while AirtelTigo had 13.1%, Vodafone had 13.5% and Glo had a little over 1%. But fast forward to January 2023, MTN is on 75.4%; AirtelTigo had dropped to 11.4% and Vodafone had also dropped to 13.2%.
4G
On the 4G side of things MTN has completely submerged competition and the space now looks like it only MTN that has a 4G network. Out of a total of about 9.3 million 4G subscribers recorded in January 2023, MTN alone had about 7.4 million (79.6%), leaving less than 2 million (19.4%) for the remaining six players to share.
Of the left over, Vodafone alone had over 1.85 million (19.9%), while the embattled Surfline had 35,796 customers, and the remaining four had nothing recorded in their named. Meanwhile, in the previous month – December 2022 – Telesol had 1,985 and Broadband Home had a paltry 292 customers, but Busy Ghana and Blu Telecoms have not showed up for a while now.
Mobile Money
Meanwhile, on the mobile money front, the Minister of Communications and Digitalization herself stated at an industry awards event in 2021 that in the third quarter of that year, out of 1.27 billion mobile money transactions in the country, MTN alone accounted of 1.085 billion. Even though Bank of Ghana does not give a breakdown of mobile money market share per operator, all indications points to the fact that MTN keeps growing on that front, as indicated by its own financial reports in terms gains from mobile money.
In 2022, for instance, MTN Mobile Money recorded an impressive 15% growth in active users to reach 12.7 million. It however reported that Mobile Money revenue suffered a blow from the implementation of e-levy (electronic transfer levy), but not from the SMP constraints.
Total Revenue and Taxes
In terms of revenue, MTN continued to grow in leaps and bounded, having recorded a whopping GHS2.2 billion increase in revenue from GHS7.7 billion in December 2021, to GHS9.9 billion at the close of December 2022. As a result, MTN also paid over GHS4 billion in taxes, levies, charges and fees to government and its agencies in 2022. This is significantly higher than the GHS3.1 billion it paid in 2021.
MTN is on record as being the country’s biggest corporate taxpayer, and that has only gotten better in spite of the SMP constraints.
Even before MTN became a public company listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange, it made it a practice to always share its financial reports with the public via an annual engagement with the media. The other telcos, on the other hand, have never bothered to make their financials public. In fact, they go to every extent to conceal any information about their Ghana operations even in group reports.
New investorsÂ
As of now, 70% of Vodafone Ghana has been acquired by the Telecel Group, and they have started making some investment into the company to excite customers and the Ghanaian public as a whole. It is expected that those investments will yield some obvious dividends in terms of growth in subscriber base, market share and a return to profitability.
AirtelTigo is also being allegedly acquired by a blueblood private equity firm from the UK, working with some local partners. Even though it is not very clear how that private equity, with no known experience in the telecoms industry anywhere in the world, would turn the fortunes of AirtelTigo around, it is expected that the move will be worth the while of the state, which is currently the 100% owner of AirtelTigo.
Outlook
Meanwhile, MTN is not sitting by and doing nothing. It is constantly strategizing around every regulatory constraint to maintain its dominant lead and keep growing.
This is what MTN said, in part, in its 2022 end of year financial report regarding its outlook into the future:
“In this challenging context, MTN will maintain the focus on executing our Ambition 2025 strategy to drive growth and unlock value for all stakeholders. We are confident in the medium to long-term prospects of Ghana’s economy and as such, commit to continue to invest efficiently in infrastructure and to improve the capacity and quality of connectivity and other related services for our customers.
As part of our commercial drive, MTN will drive adoption of the new MoMo Business app and roll out other exciting offers like the MTN/MKOPA Pick and Pay Later campaign and fibre broadband Akwaaba offer. Furthermore, we will sustain the ongoing work to improve our platforms, particularly on the myMTN and ayoba apps, as well as MoMo, to enhance customer experience and deliver on our commitment to excellence with our customers.
The community remains core to everything we do and to this end, MTN will extend various sustainability projects and explore further opportunities to demonstrate our unwavering commitment to improve the lives of communities across the nation with a focus on building and growing digital skills among the youth with a particular focus on females.
