Investor Steve Eisman has warned that the future of the artificial intelligence boom depends heavily on the success of OpenAI and Anthropic, saying the two companies account for a significant share of AI-related revenue at some of the world’s largest technology firms.
Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, Eisman said OpenAI and Anthropic generate about 70% of AI-related revenue at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Oracle. He also estimated that the two AI companies account for between 25% and 35% of the cloud revenue of those technology giants.
“The futures of these massive companies, in a sense, are a bet that OpenAI, Anthropic are going to succeed,” Eisman said.
Eisman, who became widely known for betting against the US housing market ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis, said the biggest threat to the current AI investment story could come from China.
He pointed to the growing availability of cheaper Chinese open-source and open-weight AI models, warning that they could take market share from leading US AI companies and trigger a price war.
“The Achilles’ heel of this whole story … is if something bad happens to Anthropic and OpenAI,” Eisman said, adding that cheaper Chinese models could create significant pressure if they continue gaining market share.
His comments come amid growing debate over whether the enormous investment flowing into AI infrastructure can ultimately be supported by sustainable demand and revenues.
Michael Burry, another investor made famous by The Big Short, has taken a more bearish position on the sector. Burry has questioned whether current and projected AI demand is being driven entirely by end customers, suggesting that some demand could be supported by circular financing arrangements.
Burry has also disclosed bearish positions linked to Nvidia and the broader semiconductor sector, adding to concerns among investors about the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally.
Eisman’s warning highlights the concentration of the current AI ecosystem around a small number of major model developers and the potential risks for cloud providers if those companies fail to maintain their growth, pricing power and market share.
